Climate response: why previous warming makes all the difference
A study led by the Met Office Hadley Centre found that global temperatures may keep rising after CO₂ emissions stop, depending on how much warming has already occurred. Using the UK Earth System Model, researchers found temperatures stayed roughly stable when emissions ceased at warming levels up to 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, but rose by a further 0.4°C to 0.6°C over 150 years when emissions stopped at 3°C to 5°C of warming. The study was published in Nature Climate Change on 3 November 2026.
A study led by the Met Office Hadley Centre finds that temperatures may continue to rise after CO₂ emissions stop, depending on how much warming has already occurred. At warming levels of 3°C to 5°C, its model showed a further 0.4°C to 0.6°C of warming 150 years later.
Global temperatures may continue to rise even after human CO2 emissions stop. The temperature change that follows is known as the zero emissions commitment (ZEC), and it is often assumed to be close to zero. A study led by the Met Office Hadley Centre, with co-authors from several institutions including the University of Liverpool, found that the temperature response depends on how much warming has already occurred.
The authors used the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1.2) to simulate what happens when CO2 emissions stop at different levels of warming. At the lower warming levels extending up to 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, global temperature stayed roughly stable. When increased emissions led to higher warming levels of 3°C to 5°C above pre-industrial temperatures, the model showed a further 0.4°C to 0.6°C of warming 150 years later.
The authors explained this response in terms of an energy imbalance for the Earth that continues for decades and centuries after emissions cease, where the Earth still absorbs more energy than it loses to space. At higher warming levels, this energy imbalance was larger, driving more continued warming after emissions ended, as well the cooling effect of land and ocean absorbing CO2 being weaker.
Dr Laura Gibbs, the lead author of the study said “This response matters for carbon budgets, which estimate how much more CO2 can be emitted while keeping global warming below a given level. The greater the warming level the more likely there is to be continued warming after emissions cease”. The results of this study come from experiments with one climate model, but the results highlight why ceasing CO2 emissions at lower levels of warming matters.
Professor Ric Williams, a co-author on the study at University of Liverpool, said
“The different warming levels that are reached when we cease emitting carbon makes a difference by altering the climate state, which then affects whether there is continued warming.”
The study, Zero emissions commitment depends on warming level, was published in Nature Climate Change on 3 November 2026: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02776-w
https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2026/11/12/why-previous-warming-makes-all-the-difference
University of Liverpool
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