Kabul–Islamabad Rift Limits Moscow Format

The eighth Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan—a Russian-led diplomatic forum on Afghanistan in Moscow bringing together the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Taliban, Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan, with Belarus and Egypt participating as guests—ended without a joint statement in early October after Kabul and Islamabad failed to agree on language concerning terrorism and security. Russia has deepened ties with the Taliban over the past year despite persistent security concerns. Moscow formally recognized the Taliban government in 2025, signed a military–technical cooperation agreement in May, and increasingly portrays Kabul as a partner in regional counterterrorism and trade. The Moscow Forum’s inability to agree on a joint statement highlights competing regional interests that could constrain Russia’s cooperation with Afghanistan. Pakistan’s conflict with the Taliban government and the Taliban’s tolerance of some Afghanistan-based militant groups complicate Russia’s efforts to establish a coordinated regional approach to the country.

On October 5, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov said that the eighth Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan meeting in Moscow ended without a joint statement. He claimed that there were disagreements between Taliban-led Afghanistan and Pakistan on how to characterize terrorism and the security situation in Afghanistan. The Moscow Format is a Russian-led diplomatic forum on Afghanistan bringing together the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Taliban, Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan, with Belarus and Egypt participating as guests. Kabulov stressed that the failure to adopt a joint statement would not prevent the Moscow Format from continuing its work. He said that the Moscow Format was not intended to resolve bilateral disputes, but rather to provide a platform for coordinating regional cooperation (Afghanistan International, October 5). A press release from Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said:

The Moscow Format consultations serve as a respected multilateral platform for regional countries to coordinate practical approaches to issues related to Afghanistan … There is no alternative to a course aimed at developing equal and mutually beneficial cooperation with Kabul and facilitating Afghanistan’s integration into the system of international economic ties (Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, October 5).

The eighth Moscow Format meeting marked the first time the series ended without a joint statement. Kabulov said, “When drafting the final joint statement, we encountered one problem; that problem was that our Afghan and Pakistani colleagues did not see eye to eye” (Dawn, October 6). The Taliban’s main objection was to the terrorism-related sections of the draft that referred to Afghanistan. Pakistan called on the Taliban to prevent anti-Pakistan militant groups, particularly Tehreek‑e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), from operating on Afghan soil. The worsening Pakistank–Taliban dispute has complicated the wider regional efforts to build consensus on Afghanistan (Afghanistan International, October 5).

Last year, Russia became the only country in the world that formally recognizes the Taliban government in Afghanistan. Moscow described security as the key reason behind recognizing the Taliban government, which had already been declared an ally by the Kremlin in counterterrorism efforts against Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) (Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, April 17).

Russia presents the Moscow Format as a platform for coordinating regional cooperation. Despite this diplomatic rhetoric, the Taliban was reportedly seeking to acquire weapons and drones from Belarus, allegedly with Russian approval, at a time when Pakistan is conducting airstrikes to target what they view as terrorist sanctuaries inside Afghanistan. On May 27, Russia and the Taliban signed a military-technical cooperation agreement during Taliban Defence Minister Mohammad Yaqoob’s visit to Moscow.

The Taliban faces growing military pressure from Pakistan, which declared the two countries to be in “open war” in February after a sharp escalation in cross-border fighting. The Taliban has responded with artillery and reported drone attacks against Pakistani military targets. Pakistan has conducted cross-border airstrikes against alleged terrorist hideouts inside Afghanistan amid escalating tensions with the Taliban. Russia made an offer to help de-escalate the tensions between Islamabad and Kabul during the Moscow Format meetings. Kabulov said, “Russia is ready to assist in ending this conflict in any possible, permissible way, either on its own or in partnership with our other partners, provided that both sides make such a request. We are ready to provide the maximum possible assistance” (Dawn, October 6).

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly identified Afghanistan as a major source of security risks for Russia and Central Asia. On February 2, he described developments in Afghanistan and related security threats as among the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO’s) “central” problems (Dawn, February 25). On February 23, Russia’s Foreign Ministry estimated that between 20,000 and 23,000 fighters affiliated with international terrorist groups were present in Afghanistan, including 5,000–7,000 members of TTP. The assessment came amid a sharp escalation in Pakistan–Afghanistan tensions. Pakistan had launched cross-border airstrikes against alleged militant camps and hideouts in Afghanistan on February 21–22, targeting what Islamabad identified as TTP and IS-K positions (Ariana News, February 23).

Moscow is warming relations with the Taliban just a few months after issuing warnings about terrorist networks in Afghanistan. In May, Russia and the Taliban signed a military-technical cooperation agreement at the International Security Forum held in Moscow, marking an expansion of bilateral ties. On May 14, at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Security Council Secretaries in Bishkek, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu stated that Russia was establishing a full-fledged partnership with the Taliban. The new Russia–Taliban agreement raised eyebrows in Pakistan and Central Asian countries (Interfax, May 27). Since the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban in 2021, Tajikistan and Pakistan have witnessed cross-border attacks (Dawn, November 27, 2025).

On October 5, Lavrov held a meeting with Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi on the sidelines of the Moscow Format meeting. They reportedly discussed bilateral cooperation and interaction within regional forums (Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, October 5). Lavrov warned against any attempt by the West or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to establish military bases in Afghanistan and lauded the performance of the Taliban regime in counterterrorism efforts. Lavrov also offered assistance to further build Afghanistan’s counterterrorism capacity (Dawn, October 6).

Evolving geopolitical realities in the region have brought Russia closer to the Taliban regime. Several UN reports have documented the presence and activities of global terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda, IS-K, and TTP, in Afghanistan. The Taliban has fought IS-K, but it has maintained close relations with several other groups, particularly TTP, creating security concerns for Afghanistan’s neighbors. Despite this, Moscow sees the Taliban regime as a key partner in advancing its agenda in the region.

https://jamestown.org/kabul-islamabad-rift-limits-moscow-format