Zprávy od Deutsche Bundesbank

In recent years, import tariffs have become an increasingly important instrument of trade policy, particularly in the United States. While tariffs are often motivated by the objective of protecting domestic industries, their broader macroeconomic effects remain less well understood, especially in…

In this paper, we propose a novel high-frequency identification strategy to study the systematic effects of ECB collateral policy on banks, financial markets and the sovereign bond market. Guided by a simple theoretical framework, our paper exploits the reaction of bank stock prices around ECB…

Under which conditions do usability constraints for regulatory capital buffers emerge? Our paper is the first to explicitly study capital buffer requirements (CBR) within a structural non-linear banking sector model and its implications for bank resilience and loan supply. We show that even very…

Probabilities of default (PDs) estimates inherently carry general estimation uncertainty. To mitigate this general estimation uncertainty, the European banking regulation requires financial institutions to quantify the margin of conservatism category C (MoC C). This paper provides practical…

The digital euro (D€) would establish an efficient addition to the European payment landscape. It is designed to boost autonomy, resilience and inclusion of the European payment sector. This study assesses its long-term implications and alleviates concerns regarding potential negative effects on…

How do German households adjust their savings in relation to rising inflation expectations? Using survey data from 4,824 households collected during historically high inflation in March 2023, this empirical study examines the relationship between inflation expectations and saving decisions across…

Does long-run inflation matter for financial stability? This paper studies how trend inflation affects the likelihood of banking panics in a New Keynesian DSGE model with endogenous bank runs. The results suggest that higher long-run inflation can raise run probabilities even without unexpected…

Rising geopolitical tensions are leading to an increase of hybrid threats, such as cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, espionage, economic and political coercion, disinformation campaigns and other forms of hybrid warfare. But how do these hybrid threats affect economies? We introduce a novel…

What triggers sudden stops in capital flows to emerging markets? Using cutting-edge machine learning techniques, the authors introduce the isolation forest algorithm to uncover anomalies in equity and bond fund flows. Their innovative bivariate approach reveals new insights into the interconnected…

How does geopolitical risk affect the euro area economy? While existing measures of geopolitical risk are largely US-centric, this study introduces a new euro area-specific indicator. The findings reveal that geopolitical shocks have significant recessionary and inflationary effects in Europe,…