Zprávy od Deutsche Bundesbank

Rising geopolitical tensions are leading to an increase of hybrid threats, such as cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, espionage, economic and political coercion, disinformation campaigns and other forms of hybrid warfare. But how do these hybrid threats affect economies? We introduce a novel…

What triggers sudden stops in capital flows to emerging markets? Using cutting-edge machine learning techniques, the authors introduce the isolation forest algorithm to uncover anomalies in equity and bond fund flows. Their innovative bivariate approach reveals new insights into the interconnected…

How does geopolitical risk affect the euro area economy? While existing measures of geopolitical risk are largely US-centric, this study introduces a new euro area-specific indicator. The findings reveal that geopolitical shocks have significant recessionary and inflationary effects in Europe,…

How do inflation expectations influence household spending? The answer depends on how consumption questions are asked. This study reveals that subtle differences in survey wording can substantially change the estimated relationship between inflation expectations and consumption. The results…

Rising geopolitical tensions are leading to an increase of hybrid threats, such as cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, espionage, economic and political coercion, disinformation campaigns and other forms of hybrid warfare. But how do these hybrid threats affect economies? We introduce a novel…