Zprávy od Deutsche Bundesbank

What are the macroeonomic implications of stablecoins? As stablecoin market capitalisation has grown rapidly and is projected to expand further, this question has become increasingly important. We develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with stablecoins and show that they affect the economy…

What are the macro-financial implications of a potential shift in safe haven status from the United States to the euro area (EA)? Utilizing a two-block DSGE model, we find that a safe haven status of the EA mitigates the impact of flight-to-safety shocks on domestic aggregate demand and financial…

How does carbon pricing affect global trade, savings, and interest rates? This study explores the macroeconomic implications of carbon pricing. Using a dynamic three-region model, the authors examine how different carbon pricing policies and revenue recycling schemes influence savings behavior,…

The transition to a green economy, while essential for addressing climate change, poses significant challenges for central banks. Carbon-intensive energy price changes, whether driven by market forces or climate policies, can disrupt inflation and economic growth, complicating monetary policy…

How should monetary policy respond to inflationary supply shocks that affect economic sectors differently, such as an energy price shock? Common wisdom suggests that it should "look through" the impact of such shocks on headline inflation and focus on core inflation instead. Does this…

Why did inflation rise gradually after the COVID‑19 pandemic, and why did central banks initially respond so cautiously? We argue that uncertainty about the persistence of economic conditions provides an important part of the answer. In a New Keynesian model with Bayesian learning, households,…

Are we currently more or less uncertain about future inflation or growth than we were some years ago? To answer this question, we need to know how economic uncertainty has changed over time. Data from surveys of professional forecasters seem well suited for this purpose, but changes in the survey…

Climate policy shocks create a stabilisation trade-off for monetary policy by pushing inflation and output in opposite directions. We show that optimal policy should prioritise stabilising real activity and accommodate temporary inflation fluctuations, as energy-related distortions amplify output…

In recent years, import tariffs have become an increasingly important instrument of trade policy, particularly in the United States. While tariffs are often motivated by the objective of protecting domestic industries, their broader macroeconomic effects remain less well understood, especially in…

In this paper, we propose a novel high-frequency identification strategy to study the systematic effects of ECB collateral policy on banks, financial markets and the sovereign bond market. Guided by a simple theoretical framework, our paper exploits the reaction of bank stock prices around ECB…