Why 2026 could be the most consequential midterm election in 20 years

Professor Dan Stevens examines why the 2026 US midterm elections could bring significant losses for Republicans and considers the possible consequences for Congress and American democracy.

By Professor Dan Stevens

“2026 could be the most consequential midterm election in 20 years. If the polls are right, the Republicans and Donald Trump are certain to lose their majority in the House. Although that loss has long been expected, more surprising is that control of the Senate is also seemingly in play; at the start of the year that seemed unlikely.

“But the war in Iran, high petrol prices, dim perceptions of the economy, and low approval ratings of President Trump have all contributed to what looks like potential losses of Senate seats in states such as Ohio, which Trump won by double digits in 2024, in Texas, where no Democrat has won a Senate race since 1988, and even possibly in Kansas, where the Democrats last won a Senate race in 1932.

“This situation seems to be less about the popularity of the Democratic Party though than a verdict on Trump’s second term. The consequences would likely be investigations by Congress of corruption by Trump and his associates and possible impeachment proceedings against the President.

“But all this presupposes that Trump and the Republican Party will accept results like these. That remains unknown. Trump has already referred to “rampant” fraud in postal voting, for which there is little or no evidence. If he chooses to challenge the results of the elections on such grounds what will happen next could be both very messy and further damaging for American democracy.”